By
David Andrew Weinberg
26 March 2015
Today’s Saudi-led international military intervention
in Yemen, Operation Decisive Storm, is a decided setback for Iran’s regional
ambitions. Officials in Tehran had been gloating about their proxies’ newfound
dominance over four capitals in the Arab world – Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and
Sanaa – but observers suggest that the assembly of a large multinational
coalition to push back against Shi’ite insurgents in Yemen represents a new
regional challenge for Tehran.
Just hours after Saudi Arabia’s announcement of
Decisive Storm, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (a widely anticipated presidential
candidate from the Republican Party) characterized the conflict in Yemen and
the Houthis’ march on Aden as follows: “this is about Iran.” He pointed to
Tehran’s growing influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to make the case that
Iranian involvement in Yemen represents “the latest piece in that puzzle” for
“their master plan of regional dominance.”
Although the U.S. government is quick to point out
that Iranian forces do not exercise command and control over Houthi forces,
Western and Arab officials confirm that Tehran has been providing the Yemeni
Shiite rebel group with significant support, including funding, stepped up
weapons shipments, and training and advising by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps.
Alarm
Bells
Such developments understandably set off alarm bells
in Gulf capitals, particularly given Yemen’s location. The Gulf monarchies have
long been concerned about Iranian activities in places like Iraq, with Saudi
Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal recently warning that “Tikrit is a prime
example of what we’re worried about. Iran is taking over the country.” When it
comes to Yemen, the director of research at a Saudi think tank close to the
government, the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, explains
that “security and stability in the Arabian Peninsula is a red line” for the
Kingdom.
The American role in support of the anti-Houthi
coalition, providing intelligence support but steering clear of direct military
involvement, is likely a mixed bag for Riyadh. Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Ambassador
Adel al-Jubeir stated in a press conference yesterday that “we are very pleased
with the outcome” of discussions about the operation with Washington, but no
doubt his government would have liked to see greater U.S. participation in the
effort.
Senator Rubio suggests that the U.S. administration’s
decision to avoid direct military involvement in Yemen is “being driven by a
desire not to offend [the Iranians] so they don't get up and walk away from the
negotiating table.” Perhaps a silver lining is that the Iranians themselves may
feel too constrained at least for now to pursue greater escalation in Yemen,
with a senior Iranian official telling Reuters that “military intervention is
not an option for Tehran” in reaction to Decisive Storm.
But Iran’s reaction to the coalition operation in
Yemen has been turbulent nonetheless. The spokeswoman for Iran’s Foreign
Ministry, Marzieh Afkham, warned “this invasion will bear no result but
expansion of terrorism and extremism throughout the whole region.” The chairman
of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee,
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, threatened “the outcomes of this crisis will boomerang on
Saudi Arabia as war is not confined to the borders of one particular region.”
Another member of his committee, Mohammed Saleh-Jokar,
also lashed out, warning that “the invading countries… will face the anger and
rage of their nations.” He further suggested that “the smoke of this operation
will go into the eyes of the Saudis and invaders, and it will create chaos in
the region.”
Perhaps most galling for Tehran is the size of the
coalition that its Yemeni proxy now confronts. Ambassador Jubeir stated that
Operation Decisive Resolve included the participation “of over ten countries.”
All five Sunni-ruled members of the Gulf Cooperation Council issued a joint
statement justifying their participation in the operation in recent hours, and
other members confirming participation in the operation include Egypt, Jordan,
Morocco, Pakistan, and Sudan. In addition to the United States, France and
Britain appear to support these Sunni states’ effort in Yemen from the
sidelines.
Iran's
Isolation
The participation of Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar in the
same coalition is particularly striking, given Cairo’s firm opposition to the
Muslim Brotherhood versus Ankara and Doha’s support for the group. Egypt’s
naval and air forces are already participating in the operation, and Egyptian
security forces indicated to the Associated Press today that they plan to join
Saudi Arabia in a subsequent ground invasion of Yemen from both the Saudi
border and landings by sea. Whether other participating states such as Turkey
and Qatar also contribute forces for a ground operation could hint at the depth
of Iran’s isolation in the region.
Similarly, Islamabad’s participation in Operation
Decisive Storm is likely to get Iran’s attention given Pakistan’s location on
Iran’s eastern flank. However, a senior Pakistani official recently cautioned
that the Saudis were disappointed by his government’s positions when PM Nawaz
Sharif met with King Salman earlier this month. The official claimed that
Pakistan declined to approve Saudi entreaties to send additional troops to the
Kingdom and to relocate Pakistan’s embassy to Aden as the Gulf monarchies have
done. Reuters reported today that Pakistan is still “considering a request to
send ground forces.”
Evidently sitting out the campaign entirely is Iran’s
one friend in the GCC, the Sultanate of Oman. The Sultanate’s state news wire
emphasized that the other monarchies’ joint statement on Yemen earlier today
was issued by the other GCC members “not including Oman.” It also reported that
the country’s top diplomat “affirmed the Sultanate's preparedness to stand at
the same distance from all Yemenis.”
Surprisingly, Iran’s long-time ally Sudan opted to
join the anti-Houthi alliance despite past reports that Khartoum had actually
helped arm the Yemeni Shiite rebels. This apparent turnabout followed
high-profile meetings yesterday between Sudanese President Omar Bashir and
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman. Al Arabiya News Channel reported today that Sudan’s
government “closed the offices of all Iranian missions and groups in the
country” today and sent three fighter jets to participate in ongoing air
operations against Houthi forces. Given this limited military footprint,
presumably Sudan’s main contribution sought by Riyadh was to steer clear of
assisting Iranian naval activities in the Red Sea.
No doubt, these developments are seen as a
considerable setback by decision-makers in Tehran. But Gulf observers also
acknowledge this may not necessarily ensure a swift victory given how
challenging bringing order to Yemen has been throughout history. As Doha-based
analyst Ibrahim Sharqieh notes, there is a risk today’s developments may “just
set the stage for a prolonged conflict or civil war.”
David Andrew Weinberg is a
Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He previously
served as a Democratic Professional Staff Member at the House Committee on
Foreign Affairs at U.S. Congress. David holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Source:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2015/03/26/Why-Operation-Decisive-Resolve-is-the-ultimate-setback-for-Iran.html
URL: https://newageislam.com/the-war-within-islam/‘operation-decisive-storm’-ultimate-setback/d/102142