Islamic State's Dark Beginnings: New Age Islam’s Selection From World Press, 30 December 2015
New Age Islam Edit Bureau
December 30th, 2015
• Islamic State's Dark Beginnings
By Tobin Harshaw
• An American Muslim's Response to President Obama's Call to "Work With Us"
By Sahar Taman
• ISIS leader’s latest threats reveal plans for 2016
Dr. Theodore Karasik
• Is the West Disintegrating?
By Patrick Buchanan
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Islamic State's Dark Beginnings
By Tobin Harshaw
DEC 29, 2015
Two years ago, President Barack Obama dismissed Islamic State as al-Qaeda's "J.V. team." Today, it controls roughly a third of Mesopotamia and wreaks murderous havoc as far away as Western Europe. The story of that brutal blossoming has been well documented in real time across front pages and websites, and most Westerners have some familiarity on what the Islamic extremists want (a global Muslim caliphate) and how they intend to get it (death, death and more death).
But another part of the Islamic State narrative has been shrouded in mystery. How did a violent movement that was all but extinguished in the late 2000s become the terrorist juggernaut it is today? That's not just an academic question: Just because "know your enemy" is a cliché of warfare, that doesn’t make it any less true.
Three good recent books dive into those foggy years from 2003 to 2011, when what was known as al-Qaeda in Iraq first terrorized post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, then was decimated by U.S. special operations forces, and finally re-emerged as the Islamic State.
One, Joby Warrick's "Black Flags," is the sort of work every journalist would love to write and few can: a detailed and perceptive analysis that's also a page-turner. It primarily describes the rise and fall of al-Qaeda in Iraq, which makes it necessary reading for anybody who wants to put Islamic State into the context of both contemporary jihadism and the long history of Muslim fundamentalism.
Warrick starts where the jihadists did, in the late 1990s at a filthy Jordanian prison housing 50 or so Islamic extremists whom the kingdom didn't want radicalizing its run-of-the-mill criminals elsewhere. This was a terrible idea, and Swaqa prison has since been described as a "jihadist fraternity house."
Two detainees stood out. The first was Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, a Palestinian-born Islamic scholar who saw in scripture a command to overthrow the secular governments of the Middle East. The other was Ahmad Fadeel al-Nazal al-Khalayleh, who, under his nom de guerre Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, would eventually become the most feared man in the Middle East.
A hard-drinking street thug while growing up in Jordan, Zarqawi went to Afghanistan in search of life-direction and Soviet troops. But the Russians had gone home, so Zarqawi did the same, only to be snared by Jordanian intelligence with an arsenal in his basement and sent to Swaqa in 1992. His jailers saw him as little more than an illiterate enforcer for Maqdisi, whose preaching entranced the other inmates. But, as Warrick notes, a local doctor providing medical care for the prisoners knew better from one look at Zarqawi's battle-scarred visage:
The face was unremarkable, fleshy, with full lips framed by a thin beard. But the eyes were unforgettable. Deep-set and nearly black in the low prison light, they conveyed a cold intelligence, alert and probing, but lacking any trace of emotion. Neither welcoming nor hostile, his look was that of a snake studying the fat young mouse that had just dropped into his cage.
Upon release in 1999, Zarqawi made his way to back to Afghanistan only to be snubbed by Osama bin Laden, who was shocked by the Jordanian's bloodthirstiness and eagerness to kill fellow Muslims. Nonetheless, al-Qaeda backed Zarqawi to start a terrorist training camp at Herat, near the Iranian border. After the Taliban fell to the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, Zarqawi made his way west to a lawless corner of Iraq, hoping the Americans would bring the fight to him. George W. Bush did not disappoint.
In the insurrection after the toppling of Saddam Hussein, Zarqawi's al-Qaeda in Iraq announced itself to the world by blowing up the United Nations headquarters in Baghdad. Attacks on mosques in Baghdad, Karbala and Samarra inflamed sectarian tensions between Shiites and Sunnis. Video of his personal beheading of the American businessman Nick Berg in 2004 became a global viral hit, and the U.S. put out a $25 million bounty. He took to calling himself "sheikh of the slaughterers."
He was killed in June 2006, when a U.S. F-16 bombed his safe house in eastern Iraq, and his followers found their fortunes soured. Sunni tribal chiefs in western Iraq turned on the terrorists, the so-called Anbar Awakening, and the U.S. undertook its troop surge of 2007. By the summer of 2010, the Pentagon reported that 34 of the top 42 the terrorist groups' leaders had been killed or captured. U.S. special operations forces had adapted to the hit-and-run nature of counterterrorism. "The commandos had found a way to get under the terrorists' skin," writes Warrick. "The insurgents were no longer the deadliest, most unpredictable force in Iraq. Now it was their turn to be afraid, and exposed."
The jihadist force also faced an internal schism, with the triumphant faction eventually pledging allegiance to a mild-mannered Islamic Scholar named Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, whose demeanor belied his inner savage. "In adopting Zarqawi's vision," writes Warrick, "Baghdadi also enthusiastically embraced the Jordanian's most grisly excesses." With a new leader came a new moniker: the Islamic State of Iraq. More than a name change, this was a statement of intent.
Zarqawi and his religious mentor Maqdisi had been fascinated with the end-times narratives of Islamic scripture. Unlike bin Laden, they felt that the return of the Madhi, the bringer of judgment, was perhaps right around the corner. Zarqawi sought to establish a global Sunni caliphate as soon as possible. This apocalyptic belief, in large part, kept his heirs committed to jihad in those lean times.
'The ISIS Apocalypse'
The nascent Islamic State also had a business plan, in 2009 releasing its "Strategic Plan for Reinforcing the Political Position of the Islamic State of Iraq."
Will McCants, the author of "The ISIS Apocalypse" and a scholar of Islamic thought at the Brookings Institution, describes it as having "the look and feel of a DC think tank report, with analysis and recommendations for policy makers." (Although one suspects few DC white papers come to the conclusion that the world needs more "Mumbai-style" homicidal rampages.)
The report admitted that the group had faltered badly, but insisted that if the jihadists focused their fire on the inexperienced Iraqi army, the nation would quickly fall into chaos after the American withdrawal two years later. Little did they realize that chaos on a much wider scale would soon give them a real chance to create their paradise on earth.
The so-called Arab Spring of 2010 took a long time to reach Syria, but the peaceful protests against the regime of Bashar al-Assad in 2011 soon led to civil war. Islamic State and its acolytes flourished in the power void. And they got an unlooked-for boost from Assad's terrible decision to release a horde of jihadists from prison in the hopes that they would disrupt the protests.
Islamic State's ranks also began to grow through an infusion of volunteers from across the Muslim world.
"Jihadists, especially foreigners who travel to fight in distant lands, call themselves 'strangers.' They are strange, they claim, because they adhere to the true Islam that most Muslims neglect," writes McCants, who has a gift for explaining obscure Islamic thought to the lay reader. "For jihadists, leaving their tribes means leaving their homelands and emigrating to fight elsewhere, just as the Prophet's companions, 'the emigrants,' did."
Over the next three years, this growing force took full or partial control of most of northwestern Iraq, capped by conquering the nation's second-largest city, Mosul, where the Iraqi army dropped its weapons and ran. Outwaiting the Americans was proving prescient -- and profitable. Taxing local populations, smuggling oil and looting antiquities were by then generating $1 million to $3 million a day.
Islamic State made similar gains in Syria. Zarqawi had been an adherent to an 8th-century prophecy that the final showdown between the faithful and Western infidels would come at a village called Dabiq, outside Syria's largest city of Aleppo. Islamic State fought a bloody campaign to take the militarily insignificant village in the summer of 2014.
By last summer, Baghdadi felt comfortable enough to declare himself to be the new caliph of the Muslim world and his movement to be the heir of the Abbasid Empire, the Sunni movement that dominated the Islamic world from the 8th to the 13th centuries. McCants explains:
There are striking parallels between the Abbasid revolution and the Islamic State revolution. They share a name (dawla), symbols and colors, apocalyptic propaganda, clandestine networks, and an insurgency in Syria and Iraq. … The Abbasids had provided a blueprint for how to overthrow a Muslim ruler, establish a new caliphate, and justify both. Apocalypse, caliphate, and revolution were inseparable, just as they are for the Islamic State.
'ISIS: The State of Terror'
Baghdadi of course has something that the Abbasids lacked: the ability to spread that apocalyptic propaganda across the globe, streaming in high definition. Islamic State's self-promotion skills are a main topic of "ISIS: The State of Terror" by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger. Stern, a former National Security Council staffer under President Bill Clinton, and Berger, like McCants a fellow at Brookings, note that the group's longevity owes as much to projecting fear as anything else.
"ISIS flaunts its cruelty, and that literally shameless practice is perhaps its most important innovation," they write. "Its public display of barbarism lends a sense of urgency to the challenge it presents and allows it to consume a disproportionate amount of the world's attention."
Indeed, this penchant for atrocity goes hand in hand with its messianic vision. "Violent apocalyptic groups are not inhibited by the possibility of offending their political constituents because they see themselves as participating in the ultimate battle," the authors write. "Apocalyptic groups are the most likely terrorist groups to engage in acts of barbarism."
And in terms of pure cruelty, Islamic State is on a par with both its medieval eschatological ancestors and its 20th century rivals in genocide:
Not only did it implement a draconian regime of crime and punishment, which its members believed to be divinely ordained, but it celebrated and painstakingly documented the process in its propaganda, publicizing everything from the destruction of cigarettes and drug stashes to the amputation of thieves' hands "under the supervision of trained doctors" to the genocidal extermination and enslavement of Iraqi minorities.
While Islamic State is sometimes compared with Nazi Germany, Stern and Berger note a major difference: "The Nazis did not broadcast their atrocities to the world."
Stern and Berger's book is tightly organized and to the point, as if they have reverse-engineered an Islamic State user's manual. It's also forward-looking: They want to use history as a guide to winning the present war. While they find Islamic State's atrocities as repellent as the rest of us, they also warn that we in the West "should measure our actions to avoid spreading its ideology and influence."
Doing so, in part, means not creating any more lawless places where terrorism thrives, as happened in Libya where NATO used air power to help bring down the dictator Muammar Qaddafi but neglected to help rebuild the state. As the authors put it, "the only thing worse than a brutal dictator is no state at all."
Against Islamic State, they urge consideration of our own waiting game, or "the modern version of a medieval siege." As living conditions and economies in jihadi-controlled regions continue to deteriorate, the terrorist group's income will dwindle, its citizen-hostages will flee and it will no longer be able to pretend it is a "state."
Defeating Islamic State on the ground, of course, will not end the threat. Stern and Berger feel that messaging will be key to countering its appeal to the next generation of Muslims. They would document the group's war crimes, and publicize its military setbacks and governance failures. And, finally, they warn the West not to play into the apocalyptic narrative by send a huge contingent of "crusader" forces to the judgment-day battlefield at Dabiq.
They may have a point: Zarqawi and his heirs caught two big breaks with the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the Arab Spring. Why give them another?
bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-29/islamic-state-s-dark-beginnings
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An American Muslim's Response to President Obama's Call to "Work With Us"
By Sahar Taman
December 30th, 2015
Since President Obama's December 6th message from the Oval Office in response to the violence in San Bernardino, most American Muslims are relieved to hear that our president and our government stand against unprecedented Islamophobia. In recent weeks there is an outpouring of solidarity with Muslims from thousands of religious institutions, organizations and community groups and on social media. A coalition of groups, including SARAH, the Spiritual and Religious Alliance for Hope, and Charter for Compassion, even created an Islamophobia guide.
Yet, even with this support, I see that the American Muslim community is tired. We are tired of seeing the same horrors, the fearmongering of the media, explaining our religion, and tired of the social media debates about whether we need to apologize while feeling that we need to be more vigilant than ever in protecting our families. We must overcome the tiredness as the president has called on us.
In his address, beyond the reminder that Muslims are part of America, Mr. Obama also asked American Muslims to take action:
Muslim leaders here and around the globe have to continue working with us to decisively and unequivocally reject the hateful ideology that groups like ISIL and al Qaeda promote; to speak out against not just acts of violence, but also those interpretations of Islam that are incompatible with the values of religious tolerance, mutual respect, and human dignity.
If we are going to accept the president's challenge, this means we must reject hateful ideology and speak out against misinterpretations of Islam within our own community first. We must start with our inner circles and even ourselves.
We may also need to examine possible causes of these ideologies. It is impossible to fully understand the reasons that individuals are pulled towards terrorism and violence, and any justification is inexcusable. However, radicalization and extremism can be based on certain perceptions of history and events which morph into a warped ideology.
We know that for many Muslims there is a shared narrative that Muslims throughout modern history and all over the world have been dealt with great injustice and that the oppression is ongoing for many groups. Look at the plight of the Palestinians, the Rohingya, and now the Syrians. Many Muslims think the end of the injustice is nowhere in sight. The field of post-colonial studies attests to the facts and this perspective of history.
There is another part of this collective consciousness that sees everything as a conspiracy against Muslims; leaders in Muslim majority countries are Western puppets and even that the West is at war with Islam itself. We know not many Muslims believe in the conspiracy theories. As American Muslims, and likely Muslims elsewhere, we feel we have power and privilege to be able to constructively contribute to the future, for Muslims and for the world.
Yet, in the current crisis, there is a thin sector in our communities who are fear struck and see that Muslims face only insurmountable injustice. This fear can turn into anger and then extreme ideology, and lead to violence. This path to radicalization is not the answer to Islam's future.
For those of us looking for a better future for Muslims, we realize that we, the American Muslims, are part of the solution and we can reach out. It is in our hands to prevent extremist thinking by tackling the problems straight on.
Here are ten actions I believe American Muslims can take to reach out to their wider communities in solidarity with peace and justice for all American.
1) Start talking to your older aunt or uncle or relative who may have simple views of the world and sees things as black and white, Muslim or non-Muslim, halal or haram. You know who I mean; there are many such people around us. Engage them in a discussion about how the ummah, the worldwide Muslim community, has a responsibility to be engaged and to give back. Who knows? Perhaps together you might redefine the idea of the ummah to mean all of humanity!
2) Look around for those in our communities who are alienating themselves and starting to move away. Perhaps their ideas have started to become rigid and you are a bit uncomfortable. Instead of letting them go, engage them more. If you find them in the mosque, spend time talking after prayer. Ask them what they are reading and where they are getting information about Islam. Engagement and dialogue can go far in making things clearer.
3) If some of your Facebook friends are posting exclusively about how Islam is under attack from the West, or if they are not empathetic in acknowledging how others are feeling about the violent acts, don't unfriend them! Keep them connected. Share your views and ask them to explain theirs. Keep engaged in positive ways. For that matter don't unfriend your social media contacts who are Muslim bashing. If you continue to show kindness you may get them to realize they are being small-minded bullies.
4) Reach out to people in the Muslim community who are in need, especially those struggling to educate their children. We know there are many families struggling, not only with making a living, but with moving through the maze of our educational system. There are families who do not have access to the Internet that most school work requires. Volunteer and help them set it up. Teach their children how. Mentor their child who is struggling to understand not only homework, but what papers his parents need to sign and how to communicate what happens in American schools. Ask parents if you can talk to their child's teachers and set up meetings where you can be the liaison. That young Muslim student may be feeling alienated in school and your outreach to them can keep her on track.
5) Teach English to our Muslim brothers and sisters. We all know there are many illiterate adults in our communities. It's amazing how you may find people who have memorized the Qur'an, interpret it, but cannot read a word of Arabic, or any language. Stop pitying or patronizing those who don't have an education! It's usually not their fault. If you can't volunteer yourself, connect the learner -- and this usually means making the call -- with the amazing adult literacy programs in American communities.
6) Reach out to Muslim youth who do not identify as Muslims. These young people may not be interested in religion and religious knowledge at this time in their lives, but they generally have some kind of affiliation with Islam -- perhaps their name? They too may be feeling the heat of Muslim-bashing and may need some guidance or just a friend. Fareed Zakaria, CNN media personality who explains that his views on faith are complicated -- "somewhere between deism and agnosticism," recently identified himself as a Muslim in a Washington Post essay, because he is appalled by Donald Trump.
7) There are all kinds of other Muslims you can reach to. They are many reverts to Islam (among them single women), new to the Muslim community who do not have families of their own. I have heard many say they are alone in learning Islam and are excluded because of ethnocentric groupings that our communities sometimes tend to create. There is danger for people who can become disenfranchised and tune into all kinds of misinterpretations of Islam. Invite them to coffee. They are usually interesting people with an amazing story and sometimes their knowledge of Islam is of great depth.
8) Become a public speaker. Among the greatest gifts is your voice. We are looking for spokeswomen, writers -- Muslims who can talk to the rest of the American public. If you are not an expert on religion, then focus on one area and become knowledgeable in that. Of course, Islam is vast, but we don't need scholars now. Media outlets, especially in small communities in the U.S. are desperately looking for Muslims to speak and there is a void. If you have any experience presenting or teaching in your work or school, you can speak as a representative of the American Muslim community. Perhaps you can change the story and dispel the myths. Wouldn't it be great if we stopped talking about Arabs and Muslims in the same breath? Arabs are only 20% of the Muslims and many of our Arab brothers and sisters are Christians. Let's stop being Arab-centric! Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessings be upon him (PBUH), said:
There is no superiority for an Arab over a non-Arab, nor for a non-Arab over an Arab. Neither is the white superior over the black, nor is the black superior over the white -- except by piety.
See how easy it can be? Lay people like me can quote from the hadith, the sayings of the Prophet, to make a point! For that matter, wouldn't it be wonderful if we referred to the terrorists as TIIS, the Terrorists in Iraq and Syria, since they are neither Islamic nor a state. And if you can get the media to stop talking nonsense of the existence of caliphate, it would be miraculous! Please, you are needed!
An excellent resource is Islamic Network Group, whose mission is "educating for cultural literacy and mutual respect." ING has a speaker's training program. How about becoming a volunteer at the mosque. You know the 20% of the volunteers that are doing 80% of the work? Join them.
9) Outreach to other Americans. Support your local community, go to rallies, vigils, interfaith prayer meetings, and support gun control advocates. There are a million things Muslim Americans need to do to reach out to other U.S. citizens. Right now we are looking for warm bodies. Too often there are interfaith events which churches, synagogues and community groups organize in solidarity with Muslims, and only a few Muslims, if any, show up. The organizers of these events are gracious, giving people who are in need of our help.
10) Our American Muslim organizations need to add diversity and that can be you. These groups are doing their best in these circumstances but there is room for improvement. Let's start with: #NoMoreAllMalePanels! #NoMoreOnlyMaleSpeakers! We need women of all kinds, including those homemakers who may think they do not have much to offer. We need new faces and the leaders of these organizations need to make room and mentor young people. Push your organization to do that - call them!
Let us all take on President Obama's call. Just do it.
huffingtonpost.com/sahar-taman/an-american-muslims-respo_b_8887804.html?ir=India&adsSiteOverride=in
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ISIS leader’s latest threats reveal plans for 2016
Dr. Theodore Karasik
December 30th, 2015
I believe that ISIS is looking forward to the Gregorian New Year. The dozens of videos released by multiple arms of the ISIS media empire in the past weeks, capped with ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s audio speech a few days ago, all point to the current state of ISIS and its plans and objectives for 2016. It is almost as if ISIS is conducting an end of year report to see where it’s Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are and what comes next on its horizon.
Yes, ISIS is getting hammered in the Levant relentlessly by a combination of the U.S.-led Operation Inherent Resolve and Russian strikes. To boot, former stronghold Ramadi was recaptured by Iraqi security forces, with Mosul next on the Iraqi list to roll back ISIS. Other anti-ISIS operations and tactics are notable for destroying ISIS’s economy and seizing strategic chokepoints. Baghdadi implied that he acknowledges setbacks, as his followers “may find more adversity” which perhaps only gives them more resolve. This type of comment sounds like ISIS is beginning to suffer.
This good news needs to be balanced by the bad news: ISIS is still going strong in the information sphere, including its eschatological outlook, as well as in its regional and global plans for disruption. Baghdadi’s taunts America and allies who are afraid to put boots on the ground against ISIS to fight because of “what waits in Dabiq and Ghouta,” which is a reference to what the leader describes as the “Final Battle.” This type of language plays well with ISIS’ audience, wherever they may be.
Running rampant
To be sure, ISIS is following its script announced in 2014 to expand in the Levant into the upper tier of the Arabian Peninsula by 2019. These heathens still run rampant and firmly believe in their stated goals.
ISIS wants to destabilize Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Gulf states. The messaging is clear: ISIS is continuing to challenge its enemies near and far. Baghdadi’s threats should be taken seriously as we enter 2016.
In addition, ISIS’s branches, notably the Sinai and Libyan outfits, are still active and are seemingly not planning on degrading their capabilities in the new year. In addition, ISIS is energetic in other parts of North Africa, Yemen and in Afghanistan where shifting religio-political alliances are omnipresent against al-Qaeda affiliates and brigades and the Taliban’s many sub-divisions. Let’s remember that there are close to 40 ISIS affiliates globally with millions of adherents and believers around the world. The new year may ring in with more troubling and disturbing terror attacks in the name of uncivilized group.
ISIS’s media is teasing and taunting its enemy to come to fight their “final battle.” But first, ISIS wants to show its global reach with zeal. Baghdadi’s warning to nations taking part in the war against ISIS was a call to his followers — from cells, to lone wolves, to bedroom jihadists – to target landmarks and crowds in dozens of countries across the world. The abundance of potential targets is based on the haunting patterns of numerous 2015 attacks – Paris, San Bernardino, Beirut, Ankara and Baghdad stand out. The threat is real, and the requirement for international, regional, and local cooperation is truly necessary and will be tested again and again in perhaps unexpected places in 2016.
Overall, ISIS isn’t going away anytime soon, with or without Baghdadi. The level of ISIS’s destructiveness, to force confrontations across the world, indicates that 2016 is likely to be more chaotic than 2015. ISIS is an airborne disease and still remains robust as the movement enters into a new combative and aggressive phase. While many of us see the change of year as “turning over a new leaf,” ISIS may do the same.
Dr. Theodore Karasik is a Gulf-based analyst of regional geo-political affairs. He received his Ph.D in History from UCLA in Los Angeles, California in four fields: Middle East, Russia, Caucasus, and a specialized sub-field in Cultural Anthropology focusing on tribes and clans.
english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2015/12/29/ISIS-leader-s-latest-threats-reveal-plans-for-2016.html
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Is the West Disintegrating?
By Patrick Buchanan
December 30th, 2015
On Jan. 1, 2002, the day that euro coins and banknotes entered into circulation, my column, "Say Goodbye to the Mother Continent," contained this pessimistic prognosis:
"This European superstate will not endure, but break apart on the barrier reef of nationalism. For when the hard times come, patriots will recapture control of their national destinies from Brussels bureaucrats to whom no one will ever give loyalty or love."
The column described what was already happening.
"Europe is dying. There is not a single nation in all of Europe with a birth rate sufficient to keep its population alive, except Muslim Albania. In 17 European nations, there are already more burials than births, more coffins than cradles.
"Between 2000 and 2050, Asia, Africa and Latin America will add 3 billion to 4 billion people -- 30 to 40 new Mexicos! -- as Europe loses the equal of the entire population of Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Germany.
"By 2050, the median age in Europe will be 50, nine years older than the oldest nation on earth today, Japan. One in 10 Europeans will be over 80. And who will take care of these scores of millions of elderly, before the Dutch doctors arrive at the nursing home?
"Immigrants is the answer, immigrants already pouring into Europe in the hundreds of thousands annually from the Middle East and Africa, changing the character of the Old Continent. Just as Europe once invaded and colonized Asia, Africa and the Near East, the once-subject peoples are coming to colonize the mother countries. And as the Christian churches of Europe empty out, the mosques are going up.
"Yet, even as great nations like France, Germany, Italy and Spain grow weary of the strain of staying independent, sovereign and free, the sub-nations within are struggling to be born again. In Scotland, Wales, Ulster, Corsica, the Basque country and northern Italy are secessionist movements not unlike those that broke up Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union into [24] independent nations."
What was predicted, 14 years ago, has come to pass.
Migrants into Germany from the Middle and Near East reached 1 million in 2015. EU bribes to the Turks to keep Muslim migrants from crossing over to the Greek islands, thence into the Balkans and Central Europe, are unlikely to stop the flood.
My prediction that European "patriots will recapture control of their national destinies," looks even more probable today.
Prime Minister David Cameron, who almost lost a referendum on Scottish secession, is demanding a return of British sovereignty from the EU sufficient to satisfy his countrymen, who have been promised a vote on whether to abandon the European Union altogether.
Marine Le Pen's anti-EU National Front ran first in the first round of the 2015 French elections. Many Europeans believe she will make it into the final round of the next presidential election in 2017.
Anti-immigrant, right-wing parties are making strides all across Europe, as the EU is bedeviled by a host of crises.
Europe's open borders that facilitate free trade also assure freedom of travel to homegrown terrorists.
Mass migration into the EU is causing member nations to put up checkpoints and close borders. The Schengen Agreement on the free movement of goods and people is being ignored or openly violated.
The economic and cultural clash between a rich northern Europe and a less affluent south -- Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal -- manifest in the bad blood between Athens and Berlin, endures.
Northern Europeans grow weary of repeated bailouts of a south that chafes at constant northern demands for greater austerity.
Then there is the surge of sub-nationalism, as in Scotland, Catalonia, Flanders, and Veneto, where peoples seek to disconnect from distant capitals that no longer speak for them, and reconnect with languages, traditions and cultures that give more meaning to their lives than the economics-uber-alles ideology of Frau Angela Merkel.
Moreover, the migrants entering Europe, predominantly Islamic and Third World, are not assimilating as did the European and largely Christian immigrants to America of a century ago.
The enclaves of Asians in Britain, Africans and Arabs around Paris, and Turks in and around Berlin seem to be British, French and German in name only. And some of their children are now heeding the call to jihad against the Crusaders invading Muslim lands.
The movement toward deeper European integration appears to have halted, and gone into reverse, as the EU seems to be unraveling along ideological, national, tribal and historic lines.
If these trends continue, and they seem to have accelerated in 2015, the idea of a United States of Europe dies, and with it the EU.
And this raises a question about the most successful economic and political union in history -- the USA.
How does an increasingly multiracial, multiethnic, multilingual, multicultural United States avoid the fate to which Europe appears to be headed, when there is no identifiable racial or ethnic majority here in 2042?
Are our own political and racial divisions disappearing, or do they, too, seem to be deepening?
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/29/is_the_west_disintegrating__129153.html
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