Reality check: Brinkmanship and trust deficit must end

By Shafqat Mahmood

Friday, September 19, 2008

The American focus on Pakistan's tribal areas serves both military and political purposes. On the military side, it provides a convenient excuse to blame failures in Afghanistan on terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistan. It cannot be denied that Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban have a presence in the tribal areas. But, to give this is as the principal reason for the inability to win in Afghanistan is self-deluding if not a deliberate spin to fool critics at home.

The political dimension has become important because of the closeness of the American presidential election. The Democratic candidate Barak Obama has repeatedly blamed the Bush administration of ignoring the real fight against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and instead focusing on Iraq. He has also said that he will increase American forces in Afghanistan and target the terrorists in Pakistan if he has solid evidence.

This has put the Republicans in a difficult situation and as the fighting has intensified in Afghanistan, it has seemed to prove Obama right. This has prompted Bush to become more proactive and he has not only ordered transfer of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, he has also given the go ahead to attack targets in the Pakistani tribal area. It was as a consequence of this that an American Special Forces raid took place near Angoor Adda and there has been an increase in Predator missile strikes from the air.

This phase will continue until November 4, the date of the American presidential election, despite serious protests from the Pakistani side. It is indeed ironic that on the day that American military chief, Admiral Mullen, was giving assurances to the Pakistani leadership, another drone in Waziristan killed seven people. This just proves that until the American election is over, the Bush administration will continue with these attacks just to show the American electorate how tough the Republicans are on national security.

While these are American considerations, where does this leave us? The response of the political government to the attacks was, to say the least, indecisive. Prime Minister Gilani's statement that we cannot go to war with the United States while being realistic, was not designed to reassure an edgy public. It was the military leadership that came out with an emphatic reaction; that any breach of Pakistan's sovereignty will not be tolerated. There were also reports, real or imagined, that another American commando raid was thwarted because their helicopters were fired upon by Pakistani troops.

The angry Pakistani response has made the Americans sit up and take notice and prompted the Mullen visit but it does not mean that the problem is over. There may not be much of a consensus on other issues within the American political spectrum, but on the war in Afghanistan, there is near unanimity. Whether Obama wins or McCain, it is this conflict that is likely to assume centre stage.

This puts Pakistan right on the frontline and its response will determine the future of its relationship with the United States and much of the west. While it is important to protect our sovereignty, as any proud nation should, it is also important to recognise our failings and take corrective action where needed. We can only do this, if we begin by making a hard headed analysis of our strengths and weaknesses and then forge a coordinated national response.

The first question to answer is: can we afford to go to war with the United States? If this sounds harsh let me rephrase it, can we afford to get into an adversarial relationship with the US? My answer is exactly that of Prime Minister Gilani. There is no advantage to an open conflict with the US. We can and should disagree with it. We should also aggressively assert our independence and sovereignty. We should do all this and more but within the paradigm of partnership not as an adversary.

I say this not only because of our economy is on the verge of collapse and we need a US bailout. We need this and should actively ask the US to facilitate multilateral assistance and a follow through on its promises of direct aid. But, more importantly, we need to recognise that whatever problems US may have in Afghanistan, religious militancy is also directly threatening our own existence.

The fighting going on Swat, Bajaur and other parts of NWFP should convince even the most ardent US haters that we have a serious home-grown problem. It may have been exacerbated by the American invasion of Afghanistan but it is not correct to assert that it is there only because of it. I don't want to regurgitate the entire history of the fight against soviet occupation of Afghanistan other than to point out that it was during this period that religious fervour was used to create militancy which is haunting us now.

While we have every reason to blame the Americans; from allowing Indians to use Afghan territory to provoke insurgency in Balochistan to turning economic screws on us after February election, we cannot put the blame on them for our home-grown problems. So while we must continue to point out the contradictions in American policy – preaching friendship yet helping others to destabilise Pakistan – we must do what we have to do.

We have to take the fight to the militants as the army is doing now in Swat, Bajaur, and the political leadership must have complete ownership of this. This does not mean just the PPP but also the PML-N and all other political forces. We also have to abandon, if indeed it exists, any policy of distinguishing between one set of militants and another. We have to draw a set of clear guidelines and stick to them as the fundamentals of our policy.

The contours to me of this are simple. Any Pakistani who is ready to lay down arms and peacefully negotiate grievances must be talked to and if possible accommodated. But, anyone who wages war against the state to further his political or religious beliefs must be put down. Similarly, any Pakistani or foreigner who uses our territory to wage war against other countries or external forces, violates our sovereignty. This cannot and will not be tolerated.

Any perception of going easy on some and hard on others because they may have been or can be future assets must not exist. This creates misgivings and trust deficit between partners. The Americans also need to demonstrate their good faith by putting a stop to all anti-Pakistan activities on Afghan soil. Their recent targeting of the ISI is counterproductive because it reinforces the perception that they are out to defang the Pakistani state. Mutual trust is the key to an enduring partnership and must be created.

I know that state relations and politics, as some of my friends argue, are bereft of any morality, but it is this deficit that creates misgivings. We must openly declare our policy as a Gilani or Zardari doctrine and then follow through on it without prevarication or subterfuge. Others may be devious but over time, honesty of purpose will always triumph over deceit.

Email: shafqatmd@gmail.com

 Source: The News, Pakistan

URL:  https://newageislam.com/islam-west/reality-check-brinkmanship-trust-deficit/d/753