Lebanon and the 'Invasion of Idiots': New Age Islam's Selection, 03 March 2016
New Age Islam Edit Bureau
03 March 2016
• Lebanon and the 'Invasion of Idiots'
By Diana Moukalled
• ISIL and the Poor Man's Nuke
By Luke Coffey
• And The Award Goes To Hashemi Rafsanjani!
By Camelia Entekhabi-Fard
• Hezbollah’s Psychological Warfare with Israel
By Yossi Mekelberg
• Achieving Happiness via Tolerance
By Turki Al-Dakhil
• Mosul Dam: Haider Al-Abadi Is Too Busy Fighting ISIL
By James Denselow
Compiled By New Age Islam Edit Bureau
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Lebanon and the 'Invasion of Idiots'
By Diana Moukalled
2 March 2016
“Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community,” said Italian writer Umberto Eco, who passed away last month. “Then they were quickly silenced, but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It’s the invasion of the idiots.”
Social media has provided platforms for expression and helped reflect public opinion, yet the expression “invasion of the idiots” seems right most of the time. Is this not proven by the hashtags people use? We confront this truth almost daily. In Lebanon, for example, there are hashtags that are good for nothing except mobilizing and inciting people.
Repercussions
The fierce campaign that Hezbollah supporters launched in response to Saudi measures has fuelled tensions against the entire Lebanese people in Gulf countries, and is widening Lebanese domestic divisions. Those inciting do not care about anything except childish victories within the context of political debates, even if the entire country pays the price.
The effect of this language ranges from condemning entire groups to escalation that includes the whole country. Some of us in Lebanon do not adopt the inciting language used by Hezbollah and its supporters. However, some of the reactions are not limited to the party, but include the entire country and its people. Some are urging more such Saudi decisions, which affect all Lebanese, not just Hezbollah.
In Lebanon there are Hashtags that are good for nothing except mobilizing and inciting people
Opinions that the Lebanese people must bear responsibility for what is happening in their country unfairly base the image of the people on the stances taken by their politicians. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon have entered an unknown phase. It seems Hezbollah is most comfortable because what is happening helps it shatter whatever is left of the Lebanese state to serve the interests of the Iranian regime.
Lebanon’s government must fulfil the minimum of its duties. It must specify a foreign policy that protects the public interest, and must decisively stand against what Hezbollah is doing in Lebanon, Syria and the region, and against all threats to the country.
Amid the excessive enthusiasm to expel Lebanese from the Gulf and promises of noble Iranian deeds, entire Lebanese families are threatened, and will not be protected by Twitter’s idiots.
Diana Moukalled is the Web Editor at the Lebanon-based Future Television and was the Production & Programming Manager with at the channel. Previously, she worked there as Editor in Chief, Producer and Presenter of “Bilayan al Mujaradah,” a documentary that covers hot zones in the Arab world and elsewhere, News and war correspondent and Local news correspondent. She currently writes a regular column in AlSharq AlAwsat. She also wrote for Al-Hayat Newspaper and Al-Wasat Magazine, besides producing news bulletins and documentaries for Reuters TV.
Source: english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2016/03/02/Lebanon-and-the-invasion-of-idiots.html
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ISIL and the Poor Man's Nuke
By Luke Coffey
02 Mar 2016
Last November a small amount of iridium-192, a radioactive isotope, went missing from a facility in Zubair, a town in southern Iraq. After a lot of unsubstantiated - and in some cases wild - speculation by the media that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) had stolen the material and was going to use it for a dirty bomb, the radioactive material turned up intact not far from where it went missing.
A radiological dispersal device, commonly referred to as a dirty bomb, is often considered to be the poor man's nuclear bomb - but this is not a very accurate description.
A dirty bomb is not a nuclear bomb because it does not rely on a nuclear reaction to trigger the explosion. Instead, a dirty bomb involves the dispersal of radioactive material by traditional explosives, such as dynamite.
The deadliness of a dirty bomb depends on a number of factors including the type of radioactive material used, the weather conditions, and where the bomb is detonated.
Weapon Of Psychological Warfare
In most cases, a dirty bomb holds more value as a weapon of psychological warfare than a tool for mass killing.
Even so, a well-constructed dirty bomb, using the right material and detonated in the right place at the right time with the right environmental conditions, could be socially and economically devastating while relatively simple to deploy.
Radioactive material can be found in a range of hospital equipment. In 1998, 19 small tubes of caesium-137 went missing from a hospital in North Carolina. The caesium was never recovered.
It is no surprise that a terror group like ISIL, which has declared an intent to acquire weapons of mass destruction, would be eager to get its hands on enough radioactive material for a dirty bomb.
For years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, more than 130 Soviet-era nuclear-powered lighthouses were left abandoned and unguarded.
It is not unusual for such items to be stolen and then sold on because of their high value, making them very accessible on the black market.
In Brazil in 1998, two metal scavengers removed medical equipment containing caesium from an abandoned radiotherapy clinic. Not knowing exactly what they had scavenged, they took the device apart.
As a result they exposed caesium-137 and subsequently more than 100,000 people had to be examined for radioactive contamination.
Of these, 1,000 people were found to have been contaminated, with 151 having both internal and external contamination, 20 were seriously ill and five died. Large sections of topsoil had to be removed and several home demolished in the clean-up.
Imagine a similar scenario that involved a bomb to disperse the caesium-137 in a densely populated city such as London. This is why policymakers are concerned about dirty bombs.
Dirty Bombs And Terrorism
To date, Russia has borne the brunt of dirty bomb threats.
The first dirty bomb attack was attempted in November 1995 by a group of Chechen terrorists.
A Russian TV station was informed that 10lb of dynamite had been buried with caesium-137 in Moscow's Izmailovsky Park.
Thankfully, the bomb was never denoted. The caesium-137 was found exactly where the terrorists had told the TV station they had left it.
Neither the culprits nor the source of the caesium-137 were ever found. In many ways, it didn't matter that the bomb had not exploded. The Chechen terrorists had successfully sown the seeds of fear in the minds of both the Russian population and the government.
In December 1998, a landmine attached to a container of radioactive material was found under a railway line 10 miles east of the Chechen capital of Grozny.
It is no surprise that a terror group such as ISIL, which has declared its intent to acquire weapons of mass destruction, would be eager to get its hands on enough radioactive material for a dirty bomb. After all, it is thought that ISIL has a robust biological and chemical weapons programme and has used the latter in Iraq and Syria.
Impact Of A Dirty Bomb
So could ISIL ever obtain material for a dirty bomb? Absolutely.
It goes without saying that radioactive material is dangerous to handle and comes with considerable health risks. The stronger the radioactive material is, the deadlier the impact of a dirty bomb would be.
In an organisation such as ISIL, which allows even the young and vulnerable to become suicide bombers, the issue of safely handling the radioactive material or a dirty bomb would no longer be a problem.
This is why ISIL and radioactive material make such a deadly combination.
Thankfully, in the recent case of the missing Iridium-192 in Iraq, the radioactive material was found.
However, it is only a matter of time before terrorists employ a dirty bomb either on the streets of the West or in the towns of Syria.
Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and Eurasian security at a Washington DC-based think-tank. He previously served as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a commissioned officer in the United States Army.
Source: aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/02/isil-poor-man-nuke-dirty-bomb-iraq-syria-160228065701799.html
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And The Award Goes To Hashemi Rafsanjani!
By Camelia Entekhabi-Fard
2 March 2016
Alongside the 88th annual Academy Awards ceremony or Oscars on Feb. 28, another race was in progress in Iran, which had important global implications. While the Oscars presenters read out names of Academy Award winners, in Iran names of winners of the twin elections started trickling in.
None of the election winners in Iran were as glamorous as the Oscar awardees even though they can probably compete against Hollywood stars in their acting skills. The top prize, in many categories, went to former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
From making calculated manoeuvres in the elections to mobilizing support, selecting the cast to acting in supporting role and being a playwright across different scripts, Rafsanjani left his fingerprint on all. His rivals, however, were not easy targets and their loss was indeed significant for the entire establishment.
The fresh air of victory registered in the elections has, however, raised hopes of systemic reforms in a peaceful manner. In particular, the astonishing victory of the List of Hope in Tehran sends a laud and clear message to the hierarchy.
Underlying Message
The continuation of improvement and stability at the economic front was the message to the parliament from the electorates. By ousting few permanent high profile clerics from the Assembly of Exports people have voted for major changes and reform within the leadership. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei congratulated Iranians and appreciated the public response to the Islamic system’s call. The message was also posted on his twitter account.
Regardless of who won or lost, the electorates turned up in large numbers to vote for pragmatist and moderate candidates, which was important for Khamenei. A landmark victory for Hashemi and Rowhani supporters is still not the victory for the reformists. Knowing this fact makes us understand why the supreme leader sees the large turnout as testimony to his system’s legitimacy.
The continuation of the current policies of the government, and the way Rowhani has handled the nuclear issue with the West, have the approval of Ayatollah Khamenei
The Guardian Council made perfect alteration for these elections, which basically means nothing could be fundamentally changed. Perhaps it was Hashamei Rafsanjani who received the most significant image boost, considering that his credibility and status has been challenged by the supreme leader. With this landmark victory and a seat in the Assembly Exports, his elevated status can prove to be influential.
The support for Rafsanjani could be seen as a testimony of the public’s wish to see the next supreme leader or the leadership council to act more moderate in comparison to Khamenei. However, this will be determined by the extent to which the 5th Assembly of Exports can push for reforms that Rafsanjani is looking for. This will be particularly relevant to the election of the next supreme leader.
As far as the 10th parliament is concerned, all eyes are on independent elected members who constitute about 30 percent of the seats. The political position of this parliament will be shaped by what side these independents take.
Despite this major victory for the moderates in Tehran, the hardliners continue to have an upper hand with a slight margin. This is why the position adopted by the independents will make a difference. Most analysts expect them to favor the Rowhani government.
Testing Times
In many ways, the next two years of Rowhani’s presidency are going to be extremely important for Rafsanjani. Rowhani wants to complete his term without any tussle with political leaders and also wants to satisfy the public.
Clashes with conservatives and their supporters – who have lost the elections and pay heed to conspiracy theories against the president – is dangerous for Rowhani. The smooth and well-organized election process and the supreme leader’s endorsement speaks of Rowhani’s success.
The continuation of the current policies of the government, and the way Rowhani has handled the nuclear issue with the West, have the approval of Ayatollah Khamenei. The supreme leader trusts the president and people trust Rowhani. Such an unseen relation witnessed so far can be described as the biggest achievement in the history of the Islamic Republic, since the revolution.
Rafsanjani’s strenuous efforts have mended the relations between the people and the system after intense clashes during the presidential election in 2009. Hence the award “the saver of the Islamic Republic” goes to him, as always.
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard is a journalist, news commentator and writer who grew up during the Iranian Revolution and wrote for leading reformist newspapers. She is also the author of Camelia: Save Yourself by Telling the Truth - A Memoir of Iran. She lives in New York City and Dubai.
Source: english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2016/03/02/And-the-award-goes-to-Hashemi-Rafsanjani-.html
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Hezbollah’s Psychological Warfare with Israel
By Yossi Mekelberg
2 March 2016
Nearly a decade has elapsed since Israel and the Hezbollah, the militant Lebanese Shiite Muslim movement, clashed directly in the battlefield. The two have established an uneasy, though credible deterrence with one another. They keep their animosity just short of an all-out war, confining it to vitriolic verbal attacks and restricted targeted military operations that do not force either of sides to escalate the situation into a full force conflict.
Much has changed since the bloody thirty-four days of summer 2006. Whether Hassan Nasrallah, the movement’s leader, admits it, his main concerns are with his organization’s involvement in the civil war in Syria in support of the Assad regime. Moreover, he increasingly faces criticism from within Lebanon for undermining the political system and for serving the Iranian interests rather than those of the Lebanese.
Israel, despite spreading wide-range destruction during its Second Lebanon War, 10 years ago, came out of the war with major question marks hanging over its flawed strategy and war tactics, not to mention its morality. Both sides licked their wounds in the years that followed. Nasrallah spends most of the time in hiding, fearing for his life, and the premiership of Ehud Olmert and his government suffered a major blow to their credibility.
Interestingly enough Israeli strategists perceive the Hezbollah as one of their major sources of threat, second only to a nuclearised Iran. The experience of a constant barrage of rockets hitting the north of Israel ten years ago left a lasting scar. To make things worse, the Hezbollah has increased its capabilities since then manifold. It is estimated to have stockpiled around 100,000 missiles and rockets, supplied mainly by Iran and Syria, and according to some publications of late also by Russia.
While the Hezbollah has increased its capabilities in terms of hardware and experience, due to its involvement in the war in Syria, it also sustained many casualties
Potentially these rockets and missiles can reach most Israeli major urban centres. Recently Nasrallah, utilizing inflammatory language, threatened to hit the ammonia storage facilities in the northern Israeli city of Haifa. This can be seen as a combination of provocation, an effort to establish deterrence with the Jewish state, fear of a pre-emptive strike by Israel and a means of scoring political points among public opinion at home and in the region.
Nasrallah’s threats against Israel are hardly a novelty. Nevertheless, suggesting a nuclear-like impact by hitting ammonia tanks deep in Israel in a future confrontation with Israel, resulting in hundreds of thousands of casualties, is a clear provocation and escalation—at least a verbal one. It also reflects that the Hezbollah has very carefully studied Israeli sensitivities and vulnerabilities.
A decade ago the north of Israel was nearly evacuated as a result of the rocket attacks by the Iranian backed militia on civilian targets. Nasrallah reminds Israelis of this as a means to deter a fresh Israeli attack. Last time around Israel’s massive attacks in Lebanon hit the Hezbollah hard, but also led to many innocent casualties and spread wide destruction to Lebanon’s infrastructure.
Potential Conflict
A further round of violence is likely to be very similar in nature, though potentially with even more casualties on both sides. While the Hezbollah has increased its capabilities in terms of hardware and experience, due to its involvement in the war in Syria, it also sustained many casualties. It lost up to 1,500 of its fighting force with many other combatants sustaining injuries. Despite Nasrallah’s acerbic language it is doubtful whether his organization has any interest or can afford at this point in time another cycle of bloodshed with Israel.
To be sure Israel has no more appetite than Hezbollah to enter into a fresh round of hostilities. There is very little that it could gain. However, it works on the assumption that at some point in the future it will have to face Hezbollah in the battlefield. Hence “allowing” it to amass weaponry might mean biding time in the short term at the expense of facing an even more powerful enemy later. To a large extent this threat is mitigated by the Israeli development of three different of anti-rocket and anti-missile systems.
The Iron Dome anti-rocket system was tried and tested successfully in the last conflict with Hamas in Gaza in 2014, and the Arrow and David’s Sling anti-missile defence systems proved effective in testing. In the meantime the decision makers in Jerusalem may pursue a policy which relies on the continuous development of defensive capabilities, while continuing to target the Hezbollah in Syria, the way it has done in recent years.
The assassination of Imad and Jihad Mughniyeh and Samir Qantar for instance, and attacking convoys transferring weapons from Syria to the hands of the Hezbollah, became major features in Israel’s semi-covert war with the Hezbollah.
Nasrallah’s recent speech to mark “The Loyalty to Martyrs and Leaders" day, did not focus only on Israel. It was also an exercise in criticizing some of the major Sunni states, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, accusing them of serving Israeli interests in the conflict in Syria. It was an obvious bid to present Shiite Muslims, led by his organization and Iran as the only ones confronting Israel and supporting the Palestinians, in contrast to the rest of the Arab countries.
As there is growing criticism in Lebanon of the role of the Hezbollah in Lebanon and in Syria, which questions their commitment to the well-being of their own country, a bit of bravado vis-à-vis Israel could be seen by Nasrallah as useful in garnering support from public opinion.
Squaring to each other with rousing speeches might seem as of little harm, but when it is accompanied by matching capabilities the end result might still be a miscalculated war, in which either or both of the sides is led to believe it has no other option. It is a risk that both sides should weigh very carefully.
Yossi Mekelberg is an Associate Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, where he is involved with projects and advisory work on conflict resolution, including Track II negotiations. He is also the Director of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program at Regent’s University in London, where he has taught since 1996. Previously, he was teaching at King’s College London and Tel Aviv University. Mekelberg’s fields of interest are international relations theory, international politics of the Middle East, human rights, and international relations and revolutions. He is a member of the London Committee of Human Rights Watch, serving on the Advocacy and Outreach committee. Mekelberg is a regular contributor to the international media on a wide range of international issues ‘
Source: alarabiya.net/en/views/2016/03/02/Hezbollah-s-psychological-warfare-with-Israel.html
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Achieving Happiness Via Tolerance
By Turki Al-Dakhil
2 March 2016
Regional and global media have for the past few days spoken about the newly-established Ministry for Happiness in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Some say it is a formality, while others consider it an administrative luxury. Some media outlets are jealous of the UAE, and so do not comprehend the meaning of this development.
Fortunately, last week Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid al-Maktoum wrote an op-ed entitled: “Why UAE ministers for happiness, tolerance and the future?” It is difficult to convince whoever does not want to believe that these projects are real and necessary rather than a luxury or display.
There are two main reasons for this. Firstly, there is widespread regional unrest, with civil war and failed states surrounding the Gulf. Secondly, only those who live in the UAE during this era of progress can comprehend the stunning pace of development.
The UAE leads the way in the region when it comes to opposing hateful and sectarian rhetoric
“The last few years in the Middle East taught us that we need to learn, teach and practice tolerance, to instil it in our children through education and practice and to devise laws, policies and an entire system of programs and initiatives for it,” Sheikh Mohammad wrote.
“Yes, we learnt this from the hundreds of thousands who were killed and the millions of people who ended up as refugees or displaced in the past five years due to prejudice, hatred and lack of sectarian, ideological, cultural and religious tolerance.”
Emirati Leadership
The UAE leads the way in the region when it comes to opposing hateful and sectarian rhetoric. It has devised strict laws to confront sectarianism, which have been applied several times. For example, a man was punished for insulting a religion before the New Year.
The UAE has the most diverse population in the region, perhaps in the world, as it has more than 200 nationalities with over a dozen religions. People there are respected and coexist within laws that organize their lives and punish whoever violates them. There is neither favoritism nor courtesy for those who spread hatred, violence and terrorism.
“Tolerance is not just a word we must hail but it must have indications, studies and policies. It must be solidified via behavior in society to safeguard the future and maintain the progress we’ve achieved,” Sheikh Mohammad wrote.
Slogans of tolerance are present in all Arab countries and media. There are countless books on tolerance. However, tolerance is protected by transforming it into an administrative institution that handles and spreads it throughout society while devising strict laws.
The Emirati experience has thrilled and inspired all Gulf countries. Perhaps the UAE will influence other countries to develop the means to end sectarianism and narrow-minded identification. Without tolerance, we will neither achieve happiness nor leadership, and will remain underdeveloped.
Turki Al-Dakhil is the General Manager of Al Arabiya News Channel. He began his career as a print journalist, covering politics and culture for the Saudi newspapers Okaz, Al-Riyadh and Al-Watan. He then moved to pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat and pan-Arab news magazine Al-Majalla. Turki later became a radio correspondent for the French-owned pan-Arab Radio Monte Carlo and MBC FM. He proceeded to Elaph, an online news magazine and Alarabiya.net, the news channel’s online platform. Over a ten-year period, Dakhil’s weekly Al Arabiya talk show “Edaat” (Spotlights) provided an opportunity for proponents of Arab and Islamic social reform to make their case to a mass audience. Turki also owns Al Mesbar Studies and Research Centre and Madarek Publishing House in Dubai. He has received several awards and honors, including the America Abroad Media annual award for his role in supporting civil society, human rights and advancing women’s roles in Gulf societies.
Source: english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2016/03/02/Achieving-happiness-via-tolerance.html
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Mosul Dam: Haider Al-Abadi Is Too Busy Fighting ISIL
By James Denselow
02 Mar 2016
While it was written that God warned Noah about the coming flood, in Iraq this week it was the US embassy who issued an alert warning that the Mosul Dam could burst. Such is the potential for "catastrophic failure" that the embassy advised that US citizens should leave the Tigris flood plain.
As if Iraq hasn't suffered enough the scenarios around the Mosul Dam collapsing are both real and terrifying and should provide all interested parties with an urgent wake-up call.
More funds needed to save Mosul dam in Iraq
If the dam bursts more than a million and a half people are at direct risk of being hit by a lethal tsunami some estimate could be up to 24 metres high.
Six million more could be affected with the predicted flow taking out power stations, agriculture, countless homes and even washing up in Baghdad - some 650km downriver - with 4 metres of water shutting down the airport.
Not Fit To Cope
Iraq is not in a fit state to cope with this kind of scenario which would throw countries that were at peace into chaos. Already 3.3 million Iraqis are internally displaced largely in the centre and north of the country.
Ten million people, a third of the population, are dependent on humanitarian assistance, a number double that of a year ago. 40km down the Tigris away from the dam lies the city of Mosul that was hit by waves of ISIL fighters in 2014 and now faces a very different type of threat.
Whatever the perils of life under ISIL, Mosul residents will look nervously to what any major conflict will mean for their city.
Despite the warnings from the US embassy, moves are being made to recapture the city with a new offensive launched this week in an area northwest of the city of Samarra looking to cut off the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group's supply lines.
Whatever the perils of life under ISIL, Mosul residents will look nervously to what any major conflict will mean for their city. The ruins of Ramadi are a smouldering reminder of how the Iraqi Government had to destroy the city in order to win it.
A conspiracy theorist might suggest that the US embassy could have issued the warning as a way of prompting an exodus from Mosul, but the chequered history of the dam suggests otherwise.
The vast project in some respects symbolises the failed grandeur of the Saddam era. Engineers warned that it was built on dangerously unstable foundations back in the 1980s.
Water eats away at the soluble gypsum base that the dam is built on meaning that daily repairs are needed to counter erosion. ISIL briefly took control of the dam for 11 days in 2014 and reportedly many engineers haven't returned.
Ticking Time Bomb
Yet the ticking time bomb that the dam has become has not been ignored by the government in Baghdad. Indeed, Italian forces and engineers are to be deployed to help avert a crisis.
Employees work at strengthening the Mosul Dam in northern Iraq [REUTERS]
Iraqi officials appear to be less worried than US diplomats, with the Muhsin al-Shammari, the water minister, saying the risk is a thousand to one, while Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi has reassured that "all necessary measures" have been taken and that a collapse is "highly unlikely".
It is worth remembering that unlike so many challenges facing Iraq, the collapse of the dam is an environmental disaster that takes no heed to ethnicity or sect. Saddam's home town of Tikrit is in the range of any flood, as is the city of Samarra, home to Shia holy sites including the al-Askari Mosque.
Abadi may argue that he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. He could say that everything that can be done to secure the site is being done and that he cannot move resources from elsewhere, especially with oil exports below planned levels.
While people can't expect Abadi to build an ark, there is certainly an argument that instead of the record-breaking tall towers being built in Basra, urgent and rapid investment could be channelled into the Badush Dam.
The incomplete Badush Dam lies downstream of the decaying Mosul Dam and if completed could help protect against the flood risk if any "catastrophic failure" were to occur.
So much of the Abadi premiership has been defined by the fight against ISIL that it is no surprise for him to see that as his top priority.
However, it is the mark of a statesman to make decisions that are in the greater interest of the entire country.
Ensuring the integrity of the country's water systems against potential apocalyptic scenarios has to be at the top of Abadi's agenda.
James Denselow is a writer on Middle East politics and security issues and a research associate at the Foreign Policy Centre.
Source: aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/03/mosul-dam-haider-al-abadi-busy-fighting-isis-160302052947284.html
URL: https://newageislam.com/middle-east-press/lebanon-invasion-idiots-new-age/d/106531